Friends Want Friends to Take the Vaccine: A Special Message from Ken Hartman

Please watch this awesome short video by Ken Hartman, a freelance writer and author and the Advocacy Coordinator for the Transformative In-Prison Workgroup (TPW.)

If you want to help this project get off the ground, please tweet and retweet. You can use the hashtag #FriendsWantFriendsSafe.

If you are formerly incarcerated and want to help even more, please send me a short video you can film on your phone–make it shorter than a minute, so someone inside might be able to watch it quickly–in which you address the folks you know and care about inside. Be sure that your video includes:

  • a bit of info about yourself: your name, anything you’d like to share, where you were incarcerated, and when you were released
  • why you care about COVID-19 in prison: your worries and fears about your friends getting seriously sick
  • explicitly state that you plan to take the vaccine when it is offered to you, and why
  • encourage your friends to do the same when the vaccine is offered to them
  • express compassion and empathy for the concerns and uncertainty they may have and counter it with solid facts and with your love for them

Email me your video to aviramh at uchastings dot edu. I will display it prominently, with a little intro about the specific facility where you know people, here on the blog.

Information for Residents of Correctional Facilities: Frequently Asked Questions about the COVID-19 Vaccine

As the first part in the blog’s vaccine education campaign, and following up on yesterday’s post, I’m very happy to offer you a Frequently Asked Questions document created by Drs. Leah Rorvig and Brie Williams with medical/scientific information about the COVID-19 vaccine from a source that 100% wishes you well and you can trust. Drs. Rorvig and Williams are active members of AMEND, the physician organization that issued the memo urging San Quentin to reduce its population to 50% of design capacity. Here goes:

COVID-19 Vaccines: The Basics

  • Vaccines teach the immune system how to recognize and fight off the virus that causes COVID19, which can prevent vaccinated people from getting sick. Vaccines are not used to treat
    people who are currently infected with COVID-19.
  • There are currently two vaccines available in the United States – one made by Pfizer and one
    made by Moderna
  • The vaccines are both 95% effective at preventing illness due to COVID-19
  • The vaccines have now been administered to millions of people and have a strong record of
    safety
  • While the vaccines were developed in record time, they have gone through all of the same
    steps required of any vaccine before it can be approved for use
  • Both vaccines have two doses, either three weeks apart (Pfizer) or four weeks apart (Moderna)
  • The vaccine is given as a shot in the upper arm

Is the COVID-19 vaccine safe? Should I worry that the vaccine was made so quickly?

  • Both vaccines were found to be safe and effective in tens of thousands of adults (including Bla
    and Latinx people) who participated in high quality research – the same research that any new
    vaccine or medicine must undergo before being approved.
  • Both vaccines were reviewed faster than normal, but this is because so many people are getting
    sick and dying of COVID-19 that it is considered a national emergency.
  • Both vaccines have been authorized by the FDA (Food & Drug Administration) and the
    California Department of Public Health.
  • In the U.S. alone, more than 5 million people have now received at least one dose of a COVID19 vaccine.

Has anyone died as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine?

  • No one has died from the COVID-19 vaccine. More than 350,000 Americans have died from COVID-19.

What are the possible side effects of the vaccine? Should I be worried about them?

  • The most common side effects of the vaccine are arm soreness, tiredness, headache, muscle
    pain, chills, joint pain, and fever. These side effects are more common after the second dose of
    the vaccine and – if they occur – usually resolve within 2 days.
  • These symptoms are normal and they are a sign that your body is building protection against
    the virus that causes COVID-19.
  • Among the millions of people who have now received the vaccine, a very small number of
    people have experienced severe allergic reactions to COVID-19 vaccines. If you have ever had a severe allergic reaction to a vaccine or other substance in the past, you should discuss this with
    the health care professionals giving you the vaccine.

The COVID-19 vaccine is an mRNA vaccine. Does that mean it changes your DNA (also called your genetic code)?

  • The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines both use “messenger RNA” (also called mRNA) to teach the
    cells in your body to recognize the outside part of the virus that causes COVID-19. That way, if
    you are exposed to the virus, your immune system will stop it from making you sick.
  • The COVID-19 vaccine does not change your DNA. mRNA is not the same as DNA, and it
    cannot combine with your DNA to change your genetic code.

Can I get COVID-19 from the vaccine?

  • No. Because of how the vaccine works, it is impossible to get COVID-19 from the vaccine. However, the vaccine prevents 95% (and not 100%) of COVID-19 cases. Even if you have been vaccinated, if you have a cough, fever, or other symptoms, then there is a chance you could have COVID-19, and you should ask to speak to medical staff right away.

I have hepatitis C and/or HIV. Is it safe for me to get the COVID-19 vaccine?

  • Yes. It is safe for people with hepatitis C and HIV to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. There are very few medical reasons not to receive the COVID-19 vaccine.

Do I need to keep wearing a mask after I receive the COVID-19 vaccine?

  • Yes. Unfortunately, even people who have had the COVID-19 vaccine may be able to get infected, and although the vaccine protects them from getting seriously sick, they may spread COVID-19 to others. (We do not know how common this is yet.) Until the majority of people have been vaccinated against COVID-19, everyone needs to continue wearing masks, practicing physical distancing, and frequently washing their hands.

If I already had COVID-19, do I need to get the COVID-19 vaccine?

  • COVID-19 vaccination should be offered to you even if you already had COVID-19
  • COVID-19 vaccination has been shown to be safe in those who have already had COVID-19
  • Right now, research shows that reinfection with the virus that causes COVID-19 is incredibly rare in the 90 days after you first get sick with COVID-19. Therefore, the vaccine should be offered to everyone, although some health systems are currently prioritizing patients who have not already had COVID-19 while the vaccine supply is very limited.
  • You should not get the vaccine if you are currently sick with COVID-19.

Is the COVID-19 vaccine mandatory (required)?

  • No, there is no mandatory vaccination requirement from either the state or federal government. While vaccine doses will be limited in supply at first, public health officials – and the team at AMEND at UCSF hope that by telling people about the safety and effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines, we can encourage people to voluntarily take the vaccine. The AMEND team is all planning to get the vaccine and some of us have already gotten it!

I got the COVID-19 vaccine because I want things to go back to normal. When will that happen?

  • We don’t know when enough people will be vaccinated so that things will go back to normal. But the more people that are vaccinated inside and outside of prison, the sooner things will begin to return to normal. Also, when you get the vaccine you protect other people around you by making it less likely for them to get COVID-19.

Did AMEND staff get the COVID-19 vaccine?

  • Yes. All of the AMEND team members who see patients already have received the COVID-19 vaccine.
  • Other AMEND staff will receive it as soon as it is available to them.

I heard the guards/officers, health care staff, or warden at my facility are refusing to get the vaccine. If they aren’t getting it, why should I?

  • There are many reasons that people are afraid to get the vaccine. These include a lack of knowledge about the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine, a lack of understanding about COVID-19 itself, a long history of mistrust of the medical system, and more. We encourage you to empower yourself to learn as much as you can about the COVID-19 vaccine. It is important that you make your own decision about getting the vaccine regardless of what other people are doing. The team at AMEND and our partners on this FAQ all support vaccination. See above for a complete list of our partners.

I still have more questions, what should I do?

  • You can ask your friends or family to get more information about the COVID-19 vaccines at these trusted sites:
    • https://covid19.ca.gov/vaccines/
    • https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/faq.html
  • To learn more, you can also call the Transitions Clinic Network Reentry Healthcare Hotline to speak to a community health worker with a history of incarceration. Toll free, M-F, 9-5pm. Call: 510-606-6400.
  • If you or your loved ones have additional ideas for questions that we can answer on this information sheet, please email us at info@amend.us or write to Amend, 490 Illinois St, Floor 8, UCSF Box 1265, San Francisco, CA 94143.

References

  • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: COVID-19 Vaccination
  • https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/info-by-product/clinical-considerations.html
  • https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/faq.html
  • State of California COVID-19 Vaccine Information Center https://covid19.ca.gov/vaccines/
  • UCSF COVID-19 Vaccine Information Hub https://coronavirus.ucsf.edu/vaccines

CDCR Vaccination: The Staff Is the Problem

A few weeks ago, when I pushed to prioritize prisons in California’s vaccine plan, I identified two serious problems: historically understandable mistrust of CDCR by the incarcerated population and COVID-19 denialism among prison staff. Earlier this week I participated in an extremely informative call with lawyers, AMEND doctors, activists and advocates, regarding the progress of CDCR’s vaccination program, the upshot of which is: The staff is the problem.

Here’s a quote from an email sent by the excellent Sara Norman of the Prison Law Office:

The State is currently vaccinating people in Phase 1A, which is three million people; they only have about two million doses so far, though, and have only vaccinated about 500,000.  Phase 1A includes people in long-term care facilities and some frontline medical workers, which in CDCR means people incarcerated at CCWF skilled nursing facility, CMF, and CHCF (all of which are in the middle of their first serious outbreaks) and some staff at all the prisons.  So far, we know that at least 1200 incarcerated people have been vaccinated (first dose).  As I mentioned on the call, CCHCS (the federal Receiver who runs health care in CDCR) expects to offer the vaccine to everyone at those three prisons within the next week or two. 

Our understanding is that at some point today, the California Department of Public Health will officially post the Phase 1BTier Two vaccine eligibility list, which will include all people who are incarcerated.  Statewide, there are about eight million people in Phase IB, counting both Tiers 1 and 2.  We are told that CCHCS expects to receive vaccine to start its Phase IB work in about 10 to 14 days. 

Sara added a few important points in her overview on the phone call. The acceptance rate among incarcerated people was not 100%, but it was quite high; as of Tuesday, 1227 vaccines were offered and only 108 were refused (this is a considerably higher rate of compliance than the rate in the general population.) The PLO spoke to the people who refused and identified some problems with vaccine education and communication, which should not surprise you if you’ve read this post.

The vaccination plan at CCWF, CMF, and CHCF is quite ambitious–they plan to offer the vaccine to every single person at these facilities in the next few days. The challenges they face involve serious nursing shortages. Not only do they need medical personnel to administer the vaccines and care for the sick, but they need to check vitals for the thousands of isolated people twice a day. The strain on the nurses is incredible, but they are forging through with the plan, including exhortations and threats of dismissal from Shereef Aref, the Chief Executive Officer of CCHCS. Paige St. John of the Los Angeles Times reports:

“A refusal to a mandate is insubordination,” Dr. Shereef Aref wrote. “It is not acceptable and it will not be tolerated.”

First refusals will result in a write-up, Arf wrote. “A second refusal will be referred, as a request for Adverse Action, to the Hiring Authority.”

One prison medical worker, who spoke anonymously out of fear of losing her job, said the stress was intense.

“Nursing staff [have] children out of school; to be away 16 hours not including walk time to the parking lot and drive time home could add up to 18 hours a day,” she said. In many cases, both spouses work at the prison. “It’s stressful. There is no such thing as ‘social distancing’ in prison.

“Also, the office staff have masks, but if you go on a housing unit, very few have masks because of the scarcity. … We are confused as to why they seem to have masks for administrative posts.”

She added, “Oh, and an inmate committed suicide yesterday. And two officers committed suicide in March.”

The Prison Law Office personnel were told that other incarcerated people, particularly people who are under inpatient care, were next on the list, and that the plan would roll to other prisons in mid-January, prioritizing people according to a complicated COVID-19 risk algorithm, which highlights the need to target people who are “covid-naive,” i.e, who have not contracted COVID-19 in last 90 days. Among those people, the first to be offered the vaccine are at higher risk due to age, preexisting conditions, or both. Reportedly, no thought is being given to the differences between CDCR facilities who have and have not reached herd immunity the hard way. Nor has there been an effort to prioritize incarcerated firefighters, despite the obvious transmissibility reasons that put them at the top of the list for other vaccines.

But even these are minor problems compared with what is emerging as the most serious problem: the staff. Vaccines have been rolled out for staff at all institutions, prioritizing medical and frontline workers or people who work directly with patients, but generally the plan is to offer the vaccine to all staff throughout January and February. The administration of staff vaccination has been contracted out of CDCR/CCHCS to another organization. So far, 6,700 staff members have been vaccinated, most of them at CHCF and at CMF. However, there is disconcerting evidence of significant refusal rates among staff. Incarcerated people have heard rumors that 40% of staff members are refusing the vaccine. Also, in response to a CDCR survey, about 40-50% reportedly expressed reluctance about vaccination, citing reasons such as “I wanna wait and see what happens.” The people on the call were unsure whether there was any educational campaign targeted at the staff, nor did anyone seem to know whether CDCR, as employer, would condition employment upon vaccination. In case you’re wondering whether terminating vaccine refusers from employment at CDCR would be legal from an employment law perspective, the answer is: yes, it would be.

This distressing information suggests that the problem is not only with CCPOA leadership, who have been far more interested in spending millions on losing punitive voter initiatives than in the health of their membership, but also with the rank and file, where Trump-style COVID denialism seems to have found a solid foothold. Just this week, we had ample proof of what happens when vast ignorance, misinformation campaigns, and fetid ideologies come together, right? To my shock and amazement, in the face of thousands of their colleagues sick and twelve staff deaths, including two in December, prison guards are planning an excursion to… Las Vegas for a board meeting. Wes Venteicher of the Sacramento Bee reports:

The union for California state correctional officers has invited representatives from every prison to gather in Las Vegas for a board of directors meeting even as their institutions contend with surging coronavirus outbreaks.

The California Correctional Peace Officers Association’s board includes representatives from all 35 prisons plus some members who represent officers outside prisons, such as parole agents and officers who work at fire camps.

Also invited to the two-day meeting, scheduled for Jan. 26 and 27 at Caesar’s Palace, are roughly a dozen members of the union’s committees along with retired chapter members, according to a website set up for union members to make travel arrangements.

A dozen state prisons have reported more than 200 new COVID-19 infections among inmates in the last two weeks, and another six have reported more than 100 new infections. More than 2,500 prison employees have reported new infections in the last two weeks and about 13,000 out of 55,000 have contracted the virus since the start of the pandemic.

Most large in-person meetings have been canceled during the coronavirus pandemic due to concerns about creating “super-spreader” events in which an infection may be passed around and then spread far beyond the group when the gathering is over.

California has prohibited most in-person gatherings of more than one household, whether they are held indoors or outdoors, under emergency orders. Nevada permits gatherings of up to 50 people.

Glen Stailey, the union’s president, referred questions to a union spokeswoman when reached by phone Wednesday.

“These meetings are important to the association and its members as it relates to many topics including COVID-19 inside prisons,” CCPOA spokeswoman Nichol Gomez said in an email.

Gomez said the group would follow all Nevada and California state protocols and is “constantly evaluating the situation and will make decisions accordingly.”

Gomez did not respond to questions about how many of the members who have been invited plan to attend, nor did she say whether the members plan to get tested or quarantine before or after the trip.

Note that the quarterly meeting is typically held in Sacramento. Apparently, CCPOA leaders decided that early 2021 was the right time to party. If, as Gomez stated, the meeting “relates” to COVID-19 inside prisons, they don’t apparently mean “relates” as in “aims to prevent.” The risk that Christmas gatherings of COVID-denier staff members may be partly to blame for the horrific infection rate does not seem to have been considered. In the absence of any positive educational or other initiative from their employer or union, the only visible effort addressed at reducing COVID-19 denialism among correctional staff comes from our good friends at Amend SF. In the off-chance that you, dear reader, are a correctional staff member and are reading this and open to persuasion, please, in the name of everything that is holy, watch this and share it widely with your colleagues:

COVID-denialism among staff affects not only the odds of infection among incarcerated people, but also the messaging they receive from staff members. Several people with good friends and loved ones behind bars mentioned that their connections inside have heard correctional officers tell incarcerated people that they can die from taking the vaccine and that COVID-19 is not real.

In the face of this problem, and the dearth of efforts by CDCR to quash this ignorance, I have two proposals. The first involves health officers in all cities and counties surrounding prisons in California–people like Dr. Matthew Willis, Marin County’s top health official, who tried to stop this disaster and were sidelined and ignored. This is your moment. Please organize and liaise not only with the prisons in your respective counties and demand that they condition employment upon vaccination. Tell them that there is now quantitative data, some of which comes from our original research and some from the work of others, to show the impact of their neglect on your communities. These COVID-19 deniers among the staff are endangering you and the people who live in your county. Please get involved, as there is not a moment to lose.

The other proposal is mine, and its logic is simple: If the staff won’t do their part to protect incarcerated people, we need to raise the vaccination rate among incarcerated people as close to 100% as we possibly can. And so, dear reader, if you are a formerly incarcerated person–especially if you’ve only recently been released and you still have some good friends inside–I need your help. I can also use help from family members and loved ones of incarcerated and formerly incarcerated people. Please send me a short video you can film on your phone–make it shorter than a minute, so someone inside might be able to watch it quickly–in which you address the folks you know and care about inside. Be sure that your video includes:

  • a bit of info about yourself: your name, anything you’d like to share, where you were incarcerated, and when you were released
  • why you care about COVID-19 in prison: your worries and fears about your friends getting seriously sick
  • explicitly state that you plan to take the vaccine when it is offered to you, and why
  • encourage your friends to do the same when the vaccine is offered to them
  • express compassion and empathy for the concerns and uncertainty they may have and counter it with solid facts and with your love for them

Email me your video to aviramh at uchastings dot edu. I will display it prominently, with a little intro about the specific facility where you know people, here on the blog.

Thank you very much for your collaboration–let’s save as many lives as we can together. As Rabbi Hillel said almost two millennia ago: If I am not for me, who will be for me? And when I am for myself alone, what am I? And if not now, then when?

Do Some Rich People Think Democracy is Beneath Them?

In case the horrific damage Trump and Trumpism have done to our democracy was not obvious from the horrendous crimes in plain view of the last few days (or the last four years, including human rights crimes masquerading as policies) today we have evidence on the local level of how deeply the notion that democracy can be purchased and toyed with has resonated with some Silicon Valley dolts. Not that these people needed Trump’s encouragement to think of San Francisco as window dressing for their lives, and of all of us as “local color” providing a picturesque setting for their VC deals. But today really takes the cake with an idiotic fundraiser, organized by this guy, who seems to think that his claim to virtue–being ridiculously and ostentatiously rich in a city where other members of the human race have to starve, defecate, and die in the streets–is a proper substitute for actual criminal justice expertise.

This initiative comes in the heels of a horrific tragedy–a fatal car accident that claimed the lives of two women. The man behind the wheel, Troy McAlister, was intoxicated and driving a car he had stolen from a date. Because Chesa Boudin ran on a progressive prosecutor platform, the focus is on prosecutorial missteps that led to McAlister being free: before this recent crime, he had been headed toward trial in late 2018 on two counts of second-degree robbery in connection with a 2015 holdup in a San Francisco store. Boudin’s office “referred these cases to parole because we believed there was a greater likelihood of him being held accountable and having the kind of intervention that would protect the public and break this cycle of recidivism.”

Since I know something about parole, I can explain that there are two ways in which people on parole end up back in prison: either they commit a new crime, for which they are prosecuted and tried (this can take months, if not years) or they commit a parole violation that lands them back in prison. Oftentimes, there’s an overlap. While some parole violations are technical and trivial, others amount to new crimes. It is not unreasonable to think that a parole violation route will be more efficient than a new prosecution, though things have somewhat changed in terms of the implications. Before the Schwarzenegger Administration’s parole reform, parole violators pretty much automatically ended back in prison, even for very minor violations–resulting in a prison population comprised of 50% of the people doing time not for new crimes, but for parole violations. The reform, aimed at alleviating the obscene 200% overcrowding in the system, aimed to give parole agents more discretion and a range of intermediary sanctions before throwing them back in the slammer, depending on discretion and on how severe the violation was and how risky the person was judged to be.

Like any situation involving risk prediction, when deciding whether to remand a person to CDCR or use an intermediary sanction, parole agents could be right or they could be making one of two types of mistakes. False negatives are situations when the person is assumed to not be much of a risk but then commits a new crime (such as McAlister). False positives are situations where a person is kept behind bars, mistakenly perceived as a release risk, when had they been released, they would not have committed a crime. Obviously, we only hear about false negatives, not false positives, because they appear to be penalty-free. But false positives also have a grave price. As of today, 133 people have died of COVID-19 behind bars. Most of those people were aging folks, who are largely assumed to have aged out of crime, and who would have posed no danger to the outside world had they been released (which would have saved their lives.) Their illnesses and death, in turn, resulted in infections, illnesses, and deaths in the communities surrounding the prison. It’s just that our society is not particularly inclined to value the harm and price paid by these people and their families as we value the lives on the outside. But any time we make a judgment call about risk, we might be making either mistake. And that means that some mistakes, which are horrible, and tragic, and senseless, and enraging, cannot be prevented. This is a horrible truth to live, but it doesn’t necessarily indicate that there’s something systemically wrong at the prosecutor’s office or at the parole agent’s office. It indicates that someone made a horrible mistake.

Moreover, our attention to particular instances of false negatives blur their overall context. Every fatal traffic accident that happens in San Francisco, of which there are dozens every year, leaves a deep wound of grief in its aftermath. Many of them are as preventable as this one. And the vast majority of them never make the news, because they don’t involve parolees, which is why we deal with them through initiatives such as Vision Zero, rather than through hatchet jobs against our elected officials.

So why are we making this horrific tragedy into a cause célèbre? Because there are political hatchets being forged, such as this “astroturf fundraiser” (as my friend Chris Johnson called it), about which there isn’t much to say that isn’t obvious. However, obscene wealth seems to make people impervious to the obvious, so here it is: It turns out that we have a magical and effective mechanism in the United States for holding prosecutors “accountable to the people.” It’s called voting. The people wanted a progressive prosecutor and, should they be displeased, they can elect someone else. Voting comes in pretty handy in procuring accountability, because it is available to people who have less money than Mr. Calacanis. The funny thing is that, throughout the last decades, because of aggressive fearmongering propaganda, voting regularly and reliably produced aggressive prosecutors who almost singlehandedly drove our mass incarceration crisis. Now, we’ve been through the 2008 financial crisis, and the Obama administration, and the horrors of Trump and a second recession, and the American public has apparently come to the conclusion that they are ill served by this sort of prosecutorial policy, and so they are choosing something else.

Mr. Calacanis knows this, of course. He and his ilk have been more than happy with this system as long as the hoi polloi reliably voted for the kind of prosecutors they like, but democracy doesn’t suit them quite to the same degree when the plebeians want social services, relief from cash bail, a wrongful convictions unit, and humane jails. So when he claims to speak for “the people,” he is not championing you and me–he’s championing his rich buddies, whose favorite pastime is to abuse and exploit California’s delicate democracy and treat it as a playground for their contemptible ideologies and ridiculous experimentation. This is not a particularly original move. Calacanis is merely following in the footsteps of several folks just like him, like the wealthy guy who gave us Marsy’s Law (which we have to blame for having so many old and sick people behind bars, denied parole in the face of COVID-19 for no logical reason) or the clown who wanted to split California into six states. It should also come as no surprise that these folks believe that investigative journalism, just like democracy, is something you simply buy with Silicon Valley money–even though we have excellent investigative journalists at the San Francisco Chronicle who are all over this story and are not for sale.

Look, I’m not an idiot. I know that politics-for-sale is festering throughout this great nation, and I cling to my youth in Israel, where that was not the case to this depraved degree, mostly for sentimental reasons. I know that the social democracy in the Old Country breathes no more, but its memory and ethos live on, and I have daily proof that even that faint memory works better than than the corrupt, unbridled capitalism of the U.S., in the form of people from my age cohort in Israel posting pictures of having received the vaccine I can only dream about. I remember being physically nauseated when I read the Mueller report, partly because it gave me a window into the lives of oligarchs who think nothing of buying caviar for $30,000. Mr. Calacanis and his buddies are obviously not as rich as their Russian counterparts (that must sting,) but they’re trying to play the same game. And it is universally loathsome, regardless of whether the perpetrators wear ostrich jackets or Patagonia fleece vests.

Herd Immunity at CDCR, and the Worst of All Worlds

Remember this headline? You might have missed it, what with the onslaught of news and scandals. In mid-December, emails made public by the House committee overseeing the government’s pandemic response show that Paul Alexander—who was installed by President Trump in April to lead the HHS’ communications efforts—wrote to his higher-ups multiple times throughout June and July arguing that there is “no other way” to tackle Covid-19 except establishing “herd immunity” by allowing non-risk groups to expose themselves to the virus.

“Infants, kids, teens, young people, young adults, middle aged with no conditions etc. have zero to little risk,” wrote Alexander in a July 4 message to his boss, Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Michael Caputo, saying “we want them infected” to help “develop herd.”

Similarly, on July 24, Alexander wrote to the Food and Drug Administration’s Commissioner Stephen Hahn, Associated Commissioner for External Affairs John Wagner and numerous top HHS officials arguing that it “may be best to open up the flood zone and let the kids and young folk get infected.”

In the emails, Alexander also acknowledged that the Trump administration was aware its policies would increase the spread of Covid-19, urged HHS staff to release more “positive statements” in support of the administration’s pandemic response and cast blame on scientists like Dr. Anthony Fauci for offering less rosy assessments of the situation, accusing them of trying to “make the president look bad.”

The published emails don’t include the replies from Alexander’s supervisors to his guidance aside from a skeptical—“How can this be researched and proven true or false?”—written by Caputo in response to a claim made by Alexander about herd immunity on a cruise ship.

The HHS has previously disavowed herd immunity, with Secretary Alex Azar in October insisting it was “not the strategy of the U.S. government with regard to the coronavirus,” although the House watchdog pointed out that high-profile members of the administration on multiple occasions echoed the messaging promoted by Alexander soon after his emails were sent.

The agency drew a thick line between itself and Alexander in a Wednesday statement to Forbes, saying “his emails absolutely did not shape department strategy” and emphasizing that he was a “temporary Senior Policy Advisor to the Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs and is no longer employed at the Department.”

I’m quoting this because the idea of herd immunity by infection offers a useful, if grim, lens to look at the status of CDCR infections. Right now, CDCR has 6406 new confirmed cases in the past 14 days, and the overall infection number has risen to 41,449 cases–more than 40% of the entire prison population. All prisons have outbreaks, and 29 out of 36 prisons have serious outbreaks (more than 50 cases.) But in some prisons, the rate of infection is staggering. According to today’s data, eight prisons have had more than 60% of their population infected:

CVSP    96%
ASP     92%
CRC     91%
SQ      81%
PVSP    71%
CIM     70%
SATF    68%
FSP     62%

We chose 60% and above because estimates of the rate of infection necessary for herd immunity is estimated by experts to hover between 60% and 80%.

In case you are inclined to see this as good news, don’t. Here’s a primer from Johns Hopkins about herd immunity, which was written in April, when the current infection rates in the U.S. seemed horrendously farfetched. “As with any other infection,” they explain, “there are two ways to achieve herd immunity: A large proportion of the population either gets infected or gets a protective vaccine.” They go on to explain why the former option is not a good idea:

With some other diseases, such as chickenpox before the varicella vaccine was developed, people sometimes exposed themselves intentionally as a way of achieving immunity. For less severe diseases, this approach might be reasonable. But the situation for SARS-CoV-2 is very different: COVID-19 carries a much higher risk of severe disease and even death.

The death rate for COVID-19 is unknown, but current data suggest it is 10 times higher than for the flu. It’s higher still among vulnerable groups like the elderly and people with weakened immune systems. Even if the same number of people ultimately get infected with SARS-CoV-2, it’s best to space those infections over time to avoid overwhelming our doctors and hospitals. Quicker is not always better, as we have seen in previous epidemics with high mortality rates, such as the 1918 Flu pandemic.

 It would be tempting to juxtapose the Paul Alexander emails and the CDCR numbers and suggest that CDCR’s COVID-19 policy team have lifted their prevention strategy straight out of Trump’s playbook, but I think that assumes a much higher degree of premeditated planning than what is actually going on, which is chaos. Systemwide, the percentage of infections (more than 40%!) is staggering, but not at a high enough level to provide herd immunity for a minority of non-infected people; institution-wide, this means that CDCR’s explicit party line–transfers, rather than releases as its modus operandi–is likely to backfire spectacularly. Shifting people from places with fewer infections to places with more infections puts their lives in danger and risks transferring the new strain of COVID-19 before the vaccination plan is completed (I will post about how that’s going tomorrow, but for now just know that vaccinations are not underway in the worst outbreak sites and that the priority process raises serious concerns.) Shifting people from places with lots of infections to places with fewer infections, as the so-called “remedy” CDCR has fashioned for the San Quentin disaster, dilutes herd immunity and generates horrific outbreaks like the ones we’ve seen at Avenal, Folsom, SATF, CVSP and other facilities.

These problems are going to persist as long as CDCR willfully ignores the obvious solution: release aging, infirm people to the community, where they are safer for all of us.