Unintended Consequences of Population Reduction Orders


I’ve just returned from the Fourth Conference on Empirical Legal Studies, held at University of Southern California. The whole thing was absolutely fascinating, and the papers were top notch. I will probably refer to some of these in the days to come, but the one most pertinent to our blog is Richard Boylan and Naci Mocan’s interesting paper Intended and Unintended Consequences of Prison Reform. Analyzing data from many states (predominantly in the south) that were ordered by federal courts to reduce prison population, Boylan and Mocan find that complying with these orders required an increase in correctional expenditures. The graph in this post depicts the “jump” in expenditures after court orders, compared to states that were not subject to such orders.

Now, where did that money come from? Unfortunately, from welfare. The increase in expenditures on prison improved condition within walls, but outside, it led to cuts in welfare programs. Worse, after the period of court supervision is over, the money is not returned to welfare. The irony, of course, is that prison reform and welfare target mostly people of the same social class, and once conditions improve and the population is released, folks come out to a world that offers them little in the way of help and assistance.
Granted, there are a few things that are difficult to control for even in a project as tightly designed as this one. One of these is the content of the court order. We know that population reduction methods vary according to their costs. Good credits will probably not cost as much as, say, out-of-state incarceration. These things make a lot of difference. Perhaps the policymaking lesson to be learned is that courts can and should leave states less free reign when ordering population reduction, and in the planning stage, consider the possible effects of these methods on the remaining state budget.

CA pot arrest increases beat national average

Today’s SF Chron has a story on page C-4 about Dr. Jon Gettman‘s new report on Marijuana Arrests in the US. Marijuana arrests from 2003-2007 increased nationally by less than 3% annually, but in California increased by over 5% per year. Also, Californian African Americans are now arrested for marijuana possession at a rate of 270% over Caucasians, versus about 75% nationally.

Gettman concludes that the overall national marijuana arrest rate (between 3%-6%) is too insignificant to deter crime. So what public policy goal is served by using my tax dollars on incarceration?

Netherlands Closing Prisons

The Netherlands is closing 8 prisons, eliminating 1,200 corrections jobs — http://www.nrc.nl/international/article2246821.ece/Netherlands_to_close_pris — due to declining crime rates(!) and the economic crisis.

If crime continues to decline, the nation will have to choose between closing even more prisons, versus housing imported Belgian prisoners. California is to Belgium as Arizona is to the Netherlands?!

CDCR’s Annual Report Published

(click on images to enlarge)

CDCR has just published its annual report, which you can download in its entirety. Secretary Cate’s optimistic introduction reads:

In the midst of significant challenges, the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) has quietly had a remarkable string of successes in the last year. While it is easy to focus on the negative, there have been many positive developments at our agency.
The report mentions some of these developments:

  • Population reduction: 166,569 inmates in August 2009 (as opposed to the all-time high of 173,479 in October 2006); 111,308 parolees in August 2009 (as opposed to the all-time high of 128,108 in August 2007).
  • Decrowding through out-of-state transfers: nearly 8,000 inmates – meeting the goal set in AB 900
  • Decrease in number of “bad beds” from 19,618 (all-time high in August 2007) to 10,568 in August 2009 (lowest level since the 1990s)
  • Some progress with the new evidence-based system for addressing parole violations
  • Increase in participation in academic (50 to 62 percent) and vocational programs (42 percent to 55 percent) (data here is updated to December 2008 – why?)
  • Continuous improvement with medical services (the Receiver, Clark Kelso, credited here as working collaboratively with Secretary Cate)
  • Improvement with the “prisons go green” project
  • Increasing reliance on GPS monitoring
  • Reforms in juvenile correctional system
  • Implementing risk and needs assessment in all 12 reception centers (including Chino?)

Some important budgetary numbers:

  • The average annual cost per california inmate in 2008-09 was $48,536. Of this, aproximately $16,000 per inmate goes toward medical, mental health, and dental care.
  • Between 1998 and 2009, CDCR’s budget grew from $3.5 billion to $10.3 billion. In the 2009-10 budget, CDCR received a $1.2 billion cut, which is expected to be achieved through significant cuts to headquarters, operational savings, “right-sizing” of DJJ, and population reductions.

We’ll be devoting a few posts over the next few days to an analysis of the data provided in specific sections of the report. We hope you’ll find them useful.

Decrowding Debate: 1:0? 0:1?

Two important events have just occurred more or less simultaneously with regard to the decrowding debate.

First, the gutted prison reform plan, that will lead to the release of 17,000 inmates and the transfer of minor parole violators to local jails, has passed and is moving forward, for the Governor’s signature.

And second, the Supreme Court has declined to grant a stay to the State with regard to the Plata/Coleman order. The State’s arguments have been rejected, albeit not on the merits (that will be decided on appeal). CDCR will therefore have to come up with a decrowding plan for 40,000 inmates by Sep. 18.

We will elaborate later on the possible connection between these two events.

Nixonland Mentality Wins the Day: Assembly Decision a Bitter Disappointment

Yesterday’s Assembly decision, emptying much of the initiative to reform our broken system from its content and neutralizing any healthy effect it would have on prison population, is not only a disappointment; it is also a bitter reminder that, while cost-related arguments have the potential to bring issues to the forefront of public discourse, they can’t always carry the day against the older genre of arguments, consisting of unsubstantiated moral panics and political hysteria.
It was a sobering experience to read this morning’s paper, which, in addition to these disappointing news, included a report on the unveiling of a hideous crime: kidnapping, rape, and a nightmarish “compound” where the alleged perpetrator kept his victims. Beyond the immediate horror at these events, my concern is that such abnormal, outlier experiences are perceived, and raised, as the norm, feeding our fear and insecurity.
“Crime” is a generic name for a large universe of phenomena that are very easily distinguishable from each other. The Garridos of this world are very different from the vast majority of imprisoned Californians; for every Phillip Garrido there are tens of thousands of arrestees, inmates and parolees whose property and drug crimes are closely linked with the environmental and spatial dimensions of their lives. Yes, there is some free choice and rational calculation in all of this, and the best path out of prison life must include a certain component of assuming responsibility (a little about this in a following post this weekend); but these choices exist in a universe in which not everyone is offered the same set of alternatives. When the limited opportunities contribute to crime, we should be thinking about providing opportunity, in tandem with requiring responsibility. The key is to understand that the answer to crime needs to be more tailored to suit a particular situation or social reality. There is no “one-size-fits-all” answer to crime. And certainly, shaping our response to crime based on the demons we hear about, perceive, and sometimes create, will not generate anything we will be pleased with in the long run.
Who, and what, poses a risk to public safety? What are we afraid of? Those are two different questions. The former requires hard evidence and the willingness to accept the answers we might not have assumed. The latter, unfortunately, is what has been informing criminal justice policy since the Nixon Era. Our budget woes had the potential to shake us out of indifference and generate a real change. The crisis brought together lawmakers of both parties, police officers, reformers, academics, prison personnel, and Federal judges, all of whom realized that these difficult and trying times were an opportunity to generate real change and turn around the collision course that we have been navigating since the 1970s. I fear this opportunity has been, to a large extent, missed by yesterday’s decision.
For the Governor’s disappointment with the Assembly’s decision, read here; for other discontents, see here.

State Senate Approves Governor’s Plan and Sentencing Commission Bill

Yesterday, the State Senate approved the Sentencing Commission Bill, by a narrow margin of 21 to 19 voters. The discussion was quite polarized, with concerns about public safety raised by Republican lawmakers. The next step for the bill is the Senate Assembly’s approval.

The bill was approved as part of the narrow approval of the broad plan proposed by Governor Schwarzenegger to release 27,300 inmates.

The approved measures – and the savings they entail – are as follows:

— $42 million saved by allowing the early release of inmates who complete certain rehabilitation programs, such as by earning GEDs and taking vocational training classes.

— $134 million saved by reducing the influx of new prisoners by changing some property crimes that now qualify as felonies to misdemeanors. Petty thefts, writing bad checks and receiving stolen property would no longer be charged as felonies. Stealing cars valued at $2,500 or less could be charged as misdemeanors instead of an automatic felony.

— $120.5 million saved by allowing certain inmates to finish their sentences at homes or hospitals under GPS monitoring. Qualifying inmates would need to be at least 60 years old or severely ill and have less than one year to serve.

— $30 million saved by allowing certain felons who violate probation to serve time in county jails instead of having them sent back to prisons.

— $198.5 million saved by changing the state’s parole system so that some low- and moderate-risk offenders would not be subject to parole revocation. Also, certain serious offenders would be eligible for early parole discharge if they successfully complete drug treatment.

The Michigan Deal Goes South: Too Expensive for California


California’s inmates will not be shipped to Michigan, the Detroit News reports. The reason? Michigan is too expensive.

Michigan bid too high on the daily rate it would charge to care for prisoners at either the Standish or Muskegon facilities — and won’t get a contract at either facility, said Seth Unger, press secretary for the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation.

Michigan would have charged $89 per day, per prisoner, and that didn’t include medical care, Unger said.

“Our average is $63 at other facilities ,and includes medical care”, Unger said of other arrangements with privately run prisons in Arizona, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Tennessee that hold California inmates. “It’s also the remoteness of the facilities.”
Here’s the letter sent by Secretary Cate, rejecting the offer.
While these days, our first, second, and third concerns pertain to our wallets, there are various other problematic issues with “exporting” inmates. One such concern is that the distance from family and friends would hinder visitation and contact with the outside world, which is already compromised by the locations of California facilities. The other concern, which the Plata/Coleman panel underscored in their decision, is the concern about the level of care, particularly health care, available to prisoners in other states.


Also, while not an immediate, practical issue, inmate transfers to other states are a stark illustration of the distance – physical and mental – of the public from the invisible realm of prisons. The economic crisis, as well as the Plata/Coleman decision, has significantly increased the visibility of prison-related issues, which is an important step on the way to remedy the crisis. Even if inmates are sent away, they do not cease to be the state’s problem; forgetting them is a trap that policymakers would be well advised to avoid.
Addendum: I wonder what it’s like for a Californian to do time at a Tennessee private facility. If you, or someone you know, is or has been in such a predicament, please comment and enlighten us.
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props to Jerry Jarvis for keeping us updated.

Update on Vera Report

I have just received word from the Vera Institute with an update of their report, which was released July 29 in light of new information about the influence of stimulus funds in a number of states and new budget information from four additional states.

The revised report, which is based on survey responses from 37 states, finds at least 26 states have reversed the trend of recent decades and cut corrections spending. In three states-Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota-officials reduced initial general fund appropriations knowing that a portion of the reduction would be made up by federal stimulus funds. Thus, although general fund appropriations decreased by double-digits in these states, the actual operational impacts were smaller.

Other updated findings include:

  • At least 31 states are reducing staff, instituting hiring freezes, reducing salaries or benefits, and/or eliminating pay increases.
  • At least 22 states are closing facilities or reducing beds, or delaying expansion or construction of new facilities.

The Fiscal Crisis in Corrections: Rethinking Policies and Practices was funded by the Public Safety Performance Project of the Pew Center on the States.

Download the revised report here.